Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
